On the other hand, Ozy Frantz argues that looking weird can attract an audience that is open to new and unconventional ideas: [I]magine that you mostly endorse positions that your audience already agrees with, positions that are within a standard deviation of the median position on the issue, and then you finally gather up all your cherished, saved-up weirdness points and write a passionate defense of the importance of insect suffering. Roko's argument was broadly rejected on Less Wrong, with commenters objecting that an agent like the one Roko was describing would have no real reason to follow through on its threat: once the agent already exists, it can't affect the probability of its existence, so torturing people for their past decisions would be a waste of resources. Other philosophical uses of imagined scenarios arguably are thought experiments also. This doesn't mean you sugarcoat problems, or that it wasn't a good thing for changes with the defensive leadership, but we should also honor the fact that the defensive coordinator who just left had 5 solid years here before the major problems came up, and engineered some of our best wins, and was beloved of coaches and players. This is a two-player game in which each player has two options: "cooperate," or "defect." The English term thought experiment was coined (as a calque) from Mach's Gedankenexperiment, and it first appeared in the 1897 English translation of one of Mach's papers. . GageList cures the headaches other gage management platforms cause. I am disheartened that people can be clever enough to do that and not clever enough to do the obvious thing and KEEP THEIR IDIOT MOUTHS SHUT about it, because it is much more important to sound intelligent when talking to your friends. This analysis argues that we can ignore the possibilities that return $0 and $1,001,000, as they both require that the predictor has made an incorrect prediction, and the problem states that the predictor is never wrong. ensure the (future) avoidance of past failures, "The elucidation of invariant and therefore predictive principles of nature"; and. The Relief Society board is over there 6 paragraphs before you even started saying anything of substance. You're asking CB to be like the old Twitter. Nozick also stipulates that if the predictor predicts that the player will choose randomly, then box B will contain nothing. ): Verizon tells NewsChannel 9 that service has been restored to Chattanooga. That was my life coming up, so it was normal. RE: Ive never heard anyone at a game say to have faith and believe! Roko's Basilisk. EA might have made sense in a stable world with clear optimization pathways. Non-specialists spread Roko's argument widely without first investigating the associated risks and benefits in any serious way. All Sponsored Content is supplied by the advertising company. Language relating to risk is peppered throughout the standard. No further action is required per procedure; however, it may be prudent to investigate if the unit has been used for very light tablet product to ensure that an unacceptable quality risk is present. Thought experiments have been used in a variety of fields, including philosophy, law, physics, and mathematics. p.24, Einhorn, H.J. The Most Terrifying Thought Experiment of All Time, Information Hazards: A Typology of Potential Harms from Knowledge, You Have a Set Amount of Weirdness Points; Spend Them Wisely, http://wiki.lesswrong.com/index.php?title=Roko%27s_basilisk&oldid=16604. 9; 9 Context Copy link Comment Cancel. Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals". I had to download as txt and then copy. If you find a bug, have a suggestion, or need some help with new features we've introduced, check out the thread below. Rokos basilisk is a thought experiment proposed in 2010 by the user Roko on the Less Wrong community blog. []. The cryptographer Wei Dai subsequently developed a theory that outperforms both TDT and CDT, called updateless decision theory (UDT). This doesn't mean you sugarcoat problems, or that it wasn't a good thing for changes with the defensive leadership, but we should also honor the fact that the defensive coordinator who just left had 5 solid years here before the major problems came up, and engineered some of our best wins, and was beloved of coaches and players. HSB Registration Services is accredited by the International Accreditation Service (IAS). It works well with occlusion, quick head movements, and can identify side faces as well. RE: Hes right, youre wrong old man. E.g., in a 2014 Reddit thread, Yudkowsky wrote: What's the truth about Roko's Basilisk? Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism and Optimism: The Bitter-Sweet Influence of Mood on Performance and Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking". Design, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing. One proven approach is to use process signature analysis to characterize whether the fastener was properly installed. . Time for a nap? Measurement uncertainty involve three components: accuracy, precision, and random variability. There are critical Goodman's original concept has been subsequently developed and expanded by (a) Daniel Cohen (Cohen, D., "Semifactuals, Even-Ifs, and Sufficiency". For general computer vision problems, OpenCVs Caffe model of the DNN module is the best. Comment preview. The idea of rationalizing your way through the worlds most complex problems was a dead end. The irrealis moods are ways to categorize it or to speak about it. Now those that are concerned have a feeling of impending doom. canofpicante. In philosophy and mathematics, Newcomb's paradox, also known as Newcomb's problem, is a thought experiment involving a game between two players, one of whom is able to predict the future.. Newcomb's paradox was created by William Newcomb of the University of California's Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.However, it was first analyzed in a philosophy paper by Robert Semifactual speculations are an important part of clinical medicine. Formatting help. The idea of rationalizing your way through the worlds most complex problems was a dead end. Sarewitz, D. & Pielke, R., "Prediction in Science and Policy", Nowcasting (obviously based on forecasting) is also known as. Go on to Bama boards,Suckeye. Many initial project goals are very narrowly focused around removing manpower, manual errors, and running 24/7 to improve total output. If that simulation generates the consciousness of the chooser, then the chooser cannot tell whether they are standing in front of the boxes in the real world or in the virtual world generated by the simulation in the past. Breakaway torque is defined as how much torque is required to start a parts rotation from a stationary position. Learn cutting-edge process improvement strategies from leading subject matter experts, network with like-minded peers who could become valuable business partners, and explore interactive displays of working equipment and technology from the industrys leading suppliers. The problem isnt with the Basilisk itself, but with you. This doesn't mean you sugarcoat problems, or that it wasn't a good thing for changes with the defensive leadership, but we should also honor the fact that the defensive coordinator who just left had 5 solid years here before the major problems came up, and engineered some of our best wins, and was beloved of coaches and players. Some of the powers were so OP! Many organizations stop at this point and release the unit back to regular use. The editor has significant problems. Because. The ancient Greek deiknymi (), or thought experiment, "was the most ancient pattern of mathematical proof", and existed before Euclidean mathematics, where the emphasis was on the conceptual, rather than on the experimental part of a thought-experiment.. Johann Witt-Hansen established that Hans Christian rsted was the first to use the German term The truth is that making something like this "work", in the sense of managing to think a thought that would actually give future superintelligences an incentive to hurt you, would require overcoming what seem to me like some pretty huge obstacles. Strange then, as Cohen says, that philosophers and scientists alike refuse to acknowledge either Galileo in particular or the thought experiment technique in general for its pivotal role in both science and philosophy. Roko's Basilisk is a rebranded God with a rebranded Hell. I both agree and disagree with this post but am honestly too tired to even say, While I completely agree, I do have to say, This is maybe the best post in CBs existence. (It is ironic that its only a mental health risk to those who have already bought into Yudkowskys thinking.) This post was STUPID. The difficulty is that these people seem to divide almost evenly on the problem, with large numbers thinking that the opposing half is just being silly. Bob can be an algorithm that outputs things Alice likes if Alice left Bob a large sum of money, and outputs things Alice dislikes otherwise. moment standpoint" of the individual performing the experiment; namely, in terms of: The relation to real experiments can be quite complex, as can be seen again from an example going back to Albert Einstein. Nothing wrong with expressing thoughts and opinions, I've wanted to post something similar to this for a while. Rob Lievense, solutions architect, Minitab LLC. Interested parties are also called stakeholders. Our network of technical personnel, together with one of the largest and most skilled audit and inspection staff in the world, provides the industry-specific experience to make your ISO 9001, ISO 14001, and ISO 45001 certification a reality. They include such topics as: Big or small, single storefront or multi-site operation, simple or complex these concepts are somehow manifest. Some of the most common problems identified during the first article inspection include the wrong materials used, insufficient quality of the materials and incorrectly set processing equipment. All other content is 1999-2022 SM Consulting, LLC. Because. Comment preview. EA might have made sense in a stable world with clear optimization pathways. Contact your local rep. Visit our updated, This website requires certain cookies to work and uses other cookies to help you have the best experience. But at least some of the LessWrong members do believe all of the above, which makes Rokos Basilisk quite literally forbidden knowledge. Well planned studies reduce quality risk by enhancing the reliability of values obtained during quality checks. Linearity is used to fit a linear model about the bias values. If you do not subscribe to the theories that underlie Rokos Basilisk and thus feel no temptation to bow down to your once and future evil machine overlord, then Rokos Basilisk poses you no threat. The total rotation angle when the maximum torque was achieved would quickly reveal the mis-threading, identifying not only the presence of the compromised fastener, but also the root cause of the defect. However, none of these sources have yet cited supporting evidence on this point, aside from Less Wrong moderation activity itself. Most thought experiments are intentionally (or, even, sometimes unintentionally) skewed towards the inevitable production of a particular solution to the problem posed; and this happens because of the way that the problem and the scenario are framed in the first place. See Roko's Basilisk for a particularly clear cut example of this sort of fibbing. Nov 30, 8:27pm. Roko used ideas in decision theory to argue that a sufficiently powerful AI agent would have an incentive to torture anyone who imagined the agent but didn't work to bring the agent into existence. On a societal level, examples of real-world information hazards include the dissemination of specifications for dangerous technologies; on an individual level, examples include triggers for stress or anxiety disorders. More options. Great care and documentation must be involved to ensure that the samples cannot be released into the flow of good product. This helps explain the extremely wide and diverse range of the application of the term "thought experiment" once it had been introduced into English. But now when i try to load any map even the simplest one being flatgrass, my screen changes to the normal loading screen just like it should and right as it reaches the last little space to load up all the way for me to start. Why do organizations even today continue to embark on an ISO 9001 implementation project, joining the 1.2 million others around the globe who are certified to this extraordinary quality management system (QMS) model? Bias tends to not be constant across a range of measurements. A review of process history can be used to tune in the reference range through determination of the most extreme measures likely. Visit our updated, This website requires certain cookies to work and uses other cookies to help you have the best experience. The Singularity is a rebranded Rapture or Armageddon. Well planned studies reduce quality risk by enhancing the reliability of values obtained during quality checks. Truncated setting plug gages for adjustable thread ring gages tend to cause some problems and confusion. The scenario will typically be designed to target a particular philosophical notion, such as morality, or the nature of the mind or linguistic reference. [11], Andrew Irvine argues that the problem is structurally isomorphic to Braess's paradox, a non-intuitive but ultimately non-paradoxical result concerning equilibrium points in physical systems of various kinds.[12]. Well planned studies reduce quality risk by enhancing the reliability of values obtained during quality checks. This is the torque necessary to overcome the inertia of the crankshaft and the static friction between it and the engine block; the greater the friction, the greater the breakaway torque required. More options. Gualeni's argument is that the history of philosophy has, until recently, merely been the history of written thought, and digital media can complement and enrich the limited and almost exclusively linguistic approach to philosophical thought. Some studies involve manufactured standards, which tend to be expensive and require specific storage and handling to ensure continued serviceability. It happened to me that I literally couldn't copy stuff. Or sometimes you're trying to select a sentence and it selects the whole block, and all these annoying little quirks that I find incredibly enraging. (We can equally well construct a prisoner's dilemma for altruistic agents.). The red squares represent average bias, and the red line indicates that bias changes across the reference range. If other agents know that you won't betray them as soon as it's in your best interest to do so if you've made a promise or signed a contract, and they know that you can be trusted to stick to such agreements even in the absence of coercion then a large number of mutually beneficial transactions will be possible. However, some argue that zombies are inconceivable: we can no more imagine a zombie than we can imagine that 1+1=3. (Hence, in assessing their own thought experiments, philosophers may appeal to "what we should say," or some such locution.) Nobody of any consequence. With a testing modality that uses process signatures, the entire torque versus time signature is recorded. The Routledge Companion to Thought Experiments. Escapes from all problems, responsibilities and threats by simply "Shifting" his consciousness to more safer universe. It is thus explicitly normative, involving 'working backward' from a particular future end-point to the present to determine what policy measures would be required to reach that future.[44]. He asked his readers to imagine themselves suspended in the air isolated from all sensations in order to demonstrate human self-awareness and self-consciousness, and the substantiality of the soul.[48]. UDT itself, however, is not fully formalized, and there may be some superior decision theory. Data-driven problem solving is critical for organizations to remain competitive; however, good decisions are built upon accurate measurements. As in the case of the fastener, the manufacturer could simply record the peak torque value and use that to determine if the engine assembly is good or bad. ), This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 12:52. According to a report from Dan Avery at cnet. In philosophy and mathematics, Newcomb's paradox, also known as Newcomb's problem, is a thought experiment involving a game between two players, one of whom is able to predict the future.. Newcomb's paradox was created by William Newcomb of the University of California's Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.However, it was first analyzed in a philosophy paper by Robert The manner in which organizations monitor the effectiveness of their QMS may vary. There are two basic categories of torque-to-turn tests: breakaway torque and running torque. Backcasting [is] both an important aid in determining the direction technology development must take and in specifying the targets to be set for this purpose. Each copy knows that the two copies will play the same move; so the copies know that the only two possibilities are 'we both cooperate' or 'we both defect.' If the predictor has predicted that the player will take only box B, then box B contains $1,000,000. See Robinson, J.B., "Energy Backcasting: A Proposed Method of Policy Analysis", Robinson's backcasting approach is very similar to the. The problems there were obvious - it could do too much! April 4, 2023. At the same time, introducing new opportunities for contracts and collaborations introduces new opportunities for blackmail. Why? In his 1969 article, Nozick noted that "To almost everyone, it is perfectly clear and obvious what should be done. I had to download as txt and then copy. Interested in participating in our Sponsored Content section? Subsequent discussion of Roko's basilisk has focused on Less Wrong moderator responses to Roko's post, rather than on the specific merits or dismerits of his argument. Semifactual thought experiments the term semifactual was coined by Nelson Goodman in 1947[17][32] speculate on the extent to which things might have remained the same, despite there being a different past; and asks the question Even though X happened instead of E, would Y have still occurred? Bruce Takasaki is a product marketing manager for Sciemetric Instruments (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada). For Rokos Basilisk is an evil, Good no problems there. [10], Gary Drescher argues in his book Good and Real that the correct decision is to take only box B, by appealing to a situation he argues is analogous a rational agent in a deterministic universe deciding whether or not to cross a potentially busy street. The ignore and mute features are amazing. IOW: hellsite, I wonder at times is it newer generations or what, but I agree a lot with, Clown post. Are you asleep? It notes that defection is the best option assuming my copy is already definitely going to defect, and that defection is also the best option assuming my copy is already definitely going to cooperate; so, since defection dominates, it defects. Risk is dealt with in terms of the potentiality for something to go wrong. In Galileo's thought experiment, for example, the rearrangement of empirical experience consists of the original idea of combining bodies of different weights.[12]. Campbell, Richmond and Sowden, Lanning, ed. And who are these great opinions offered to? Posts like the one linked are soooo silly. Average bias of (-0.2 mg) can be used to summarize the performance as only one reference weight has bias that differs significantly (100mg, bias of -1.6, p=0.005). or. How much torque is required to get the crankshaft moving? But often, philosophers differ in their intuitions about the scenario. It happened to me that I literally couldn't copy stuff. Sponsored Content is a special paid section where industry companies provide high quality, objective, non-commercial content around topics of interest to the Quality audience. Rokos Basilisk: The Scariest Thought Experiment Ever The Evolution of Ultrasonic Testing (UT) from Conventional UT to Total Focusing Method Or sometimes you're trying to select a sentence and it selects the whole block, and all these annoying little quirks that I find incredibly enraging. The player does not know what the predictor predicted or what box B contains while making the choice. Failure to address the issues will result in challenges in your ability to get product to market to, in the words of ISO 9001:2015, consistently provide products and services that meet customer and applicable statutory and regulatory requirements.. Again, I deleted that post not because I had decided that this thing probably presented a real hazard, but because I was afraid some unknown variant of it might, and because it seemed to me like the obvious General Procedure For Handling Things That Might Be Infohazards said you shouldn't post them to the Internet. Occasionally a poster will complain off topic about the idea being deleted. You must have JavaScript enabled to enjoy a limited number of articles over the next 30 days. []. David Chalmers says that we can imagine that there are zombies, or persons who are physically identical to us in every way but who lack consciousness. These people are the villains of the story. Step 1 - Charge members $2.99 a month and fine rule violations $5. That was my life coming up, so it was normal. Moreover, it also gave the quickest fps among all. And I definitely think the owners of this site should read this and consider, as well. p.814, Dreborg, K.H., "Essence of Backcasting". The problem was that Roko's post seemed near in idea-space to a large class of potential hazards, all of which, regardless of their plausibility, had the property that they presented no potential benefit to anyone. If they can be blackmailed, this additionally requires a large amount of shared information and trust between the agents, which does not appear to exist in the case of Roko's basilisk. Painting Basilisks on walls is a crap thing to do. On the other hand, predictions involve forward inference; i.e., one goes forward in time from present causes to future effects. Classic user names. Therefore, people are continually engaged in shifting between forward and backward inference in both making and evaluating forecasts. For more information, e-mail. Two AI agents with sufficiently strong knowledge of each other, and heavily motivated to achieve mutual cooperation on the Prisoner's Dilemma, might be able to overcome this obstacle and cooperate with confidence. This makes it much likelier that one will never be blackmailed in the first place, just as credibly precommitting to stick to trade agreements (even when there are short-term disadvantages to doing so) makes it much likelier that one will be approached as a trading partner. Burgess readily acknowledges that those who are in the second stage should take both boxes. Thus, the choice becomes whether to take both boxes with $1,000 or to take only box B with $1,000,000 so taking only box B is always better. This would act as an incentive to get people to donate more to reducing existential risk, and thereby increase the chances of a positive singularity. Your beef is with TNT, not the board. Two agents that are running a logical decision theory can achieve mutual cooperation in a prisoner's dilemma even if there is no outside force mandating cooperation. Salviati. 9; 9 Context Copy link Comment Cancel. These experiments tested the Bell inequalities published in 1964 in a purely theoretical paper. With Unlimited Users for free on all accounts, Multi-site Control Panel and free Mobile App for iOS and Android, GageList lets you manage gages anytime, from anywhere, on any device. In Burgesss words: youve been a bad boy scout; the riches are reserved for those who are prepared. We probably also have the FAI take actions that cancel out the impact of anyone motivated by true rather than imagined blackmail, so as to obliterate the motive of any superintelligences to engage in blackmail. "[Using] suites of observational data and sophisticated numerical models in an effort to foretell the behavior or evolution of complex phenomena". There is also another predictor: a "meta-predictor" who has reliably predicted both the players and the predictor in the past, and who predicts the following: "Either you will choose both boxes, and the predictor will make its decision after you, or you will choose only box B, and the predictor will already have made its decision.". Yudkowsky additionally argued that a well-designed version of Alice would precommit to resisting blackmail from Bob, while still accepting positive-sum acausal trades (e.g., ordinary contracts). Yudkowsky subsequently went into more detail about his thought processes on Reddit: When Roko posted about the Basilisk, I very foolishly yelled at him, called him an idiot, and then deleted the post. The ASSEMBLY Show South. (e.g., "If Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz had cooperated with each other, what would mathematics look like today?"). This is supposed to show that physicalism is false. Formatting help. The p values across the reference range (table 2) indicate significant differences in bias, especially for tablets in the lighter half of the reference range. If you just type in ISO 9001 (without the date) you get about 209 million hits. Bourget, D., Chalmers, D. J. Please click here to continue without javascript.. Yudkowsky's interest in decision theory stems from his interest in the AI control problem: "If artificially intelligent systems someday come to surpass humans in intelligence, how can we specify safe goals for them to autonomously carry out, and how can we gain high confidence in the agents' reasoning and decision-making?" By closing this message or continuing to use our site, you agree to the use of cookies. The 'experiment' is described by Galileo in Discorsi e dimostrazioni matematiche (1638) (literally, 'Mathematical Discourses and Demonstrations') thus: Salviati. Tablet weight is quantified in milligrams (mg) and the scale manufacturer specifies that the device can measure to within 1 mg. A laboratory scale is used to create the standard measurements as it is specified to measure to within 0.1mg. Sorry but my shoe size was already sold out. Or sometimes you're trying to select a sentence and it selects the whole block, and all these annoying little quirks that I find incredibly enraging. [54][55] He considers virtual worlds to be philosophically viable and advantageous in contexts like those of thought experiments, when the recipients of a certain philosophical notion or perspective are expected to objectively test and evaluate different possible courses of action, or in cases where they are confronted with interrogatives concerning non-actual or non-human phenomenologies. Wheeler, J.A, Zurek, W.H., editors (1983). For general computer vision problems, OpenCVs Caffe model of the DNN module is the best. The idea of rationalizing your way through the worlds most complex problems was a dead end. Infant, I'd sat it gives a. (e.g., Even if the goalie had moved left, rather than right, could he have intercepted a ball that was traveling at such a speed?). Torque testing is essential on products with rotating parts such as engines. And the social problems he identified poverty, crime, illiteracy, white discrimination are the exact same things you talk about 120 years later. 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