"Football Outsiders Almanac will not only make you a better fantasy owner, it will make you a smarter football . In reply to Gannon was a backup then by cstoos. We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. NFL odds, picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Plus, how is Minnesota pulling off an 8-1 record? Outsiders is currently favored at -159 moneyline odds on the OddsJam Perfect Line, which takes odds from the sharpest sportsbook in the world.. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. The Chiefs are scoring just under 30 points and are also number one in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. 2020 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. Admittedly don't know much about the rest of the roster. Brian Fremeau provides [] Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 6). So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better. Is this all Flores? We know its a little weird how much our computer projection loves the Vikings after two losing seasons. I can see a world where the Bears and the Jets have a better offensive DVOA than Washington because Fields or Wilson reach their potential but you are correct that it is much more likely that Wentz leads Washington to a better offense than either of those teams. 2) Bryan Knowles and Cale Clinton broke down the Eagles in their over/under picks a few weeks ago. I just must be crazy or an eternal pessimist, but I am down on this team's prospects for next year. Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. I don't have much faith in Lance, but that's a good roster, and they did just fine with Jimmy G the last few years. Morocco see off Ronaldo, Portugal; Kane heartbreak as England fall to France, In his likely World Cup finale, Ronaldo's calm, subdued effort not enough for Portugal, From 'Mr. 2. And the Vikings had an above-average defensive DVOA last year on every down/play split except for first-down passes. The Rams have been trying to compete with a defense and special-teams orientation for years now, but hiring Wade Phillips could finally make that recipe work. Theyshould, but the exact same thing was said about Miami/Marino after they lost that SB to the Niners. I by KnotMe. I like the offense in general. Let's take a look. New England lost both coordinators and fatigue had to be real after 2 long sb runs. How do the numbers stack up for each Mountain West team? So anything from from 700 to 1300 DYAR (then scale that to six games) is defensible. The Cardinals' offense will aim to surpass the Football Outsiders projections in 2021. Miami moves up five spots, Buffalo is back to No. The Tigers scored 34 points per game behind a good offensive line (14th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric), an excellent running game (25th in Rush EPA per play), and improved play from . In reply to FO has a weird vendetta against Wentz. I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? All I can think of for the drop is they think Tartt, Jones, Verret, and K'wuan at slot have given way to large downgrades. Jacksonville It also likes drafting defensive players high up, including Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth. We're forecasting a lot of offensive regression from Atlanta, which went from 23rd in offensive DVOA in 2015 to first in 2016 and now has to adapt to a new offensive coordinator. Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. I would be stunned if this team finished 32nd on offense. The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? In reply to Special Teams by Aaron Schatz. The stars are all aligned and its now or never. Kirk Cousins probably is the player in the NFL who forces the biggest disagreements between stats people and film people, but the dude is consistently like the 10th best quarterback in the league, statistically. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots defense does this year, though: letting Jackson go still seems like one of the biggest mistakes New England's made inyears. Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. Our full statistical database will be made available with DVOA rankings, grades, and more. In reply to Last year's Ravens were the by dmb. Kinlaw is probably a downgrade vs. DJ Jones against the run and an upgrade against the pass. Always interested to hear which bits and pieces people want to continue, so I can act accordingly! 4. Houston might have won the division last season, but the Texans ranked a dismal 29th in our DVOA ratings. But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. If the offense can be garden-variety bad instead of last year's near-historic impotence, it's enough to make the Rams playoff contenders. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Mercifully, I didn't have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling. I think this year will be a nice test for the coaching staff. (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. I can't think of anyone who missed 2 years but made a ful recovery. Read more Print length 560 pages Language English Publication date July 8, 2009 What exactly is driving the Seahawks offensive collapse and what exactly is offsetting the Broncos gaining Wilson? I know, it looks very strange for us to have no team projected with 11 wins. But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre. Green Bay I do think there are legitimate concerns about the level of Jackson's play, the lack of receivers, and lack of pass rush. 3. Scramble isn't by Bryan Knowles. Not a particularly high ceiling for this offense, but I'm not really seeing a world where NYG, CAR, CHI, or NYJ ever pass them up on offense, and they'll probably be better than teams like DET, HOU, and PIT. Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 23) It's the end of a name, not of a concept. 3. are clearly very hard to predict. that projection looks very negative but actually they are 8th best team in NFC! 2. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? In reply to I could easily see a 9-8 by Mike B. Raiders vs Rams picks and predictions. Now they are at 10.6. Also we seem to sleeping on the Dre Greenlaw return. It's interesting when they compare the preseason predictions to the results partway the year. 1. Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. It seemed mind boggling. I suppose it might include a subjective appreciation of coaching, but it seems incredibly difficult to project such a thing correctly. Indianapolis 3. Indianapolis has mustered 16 and 17 points vs. quality defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia the past two games. You add it all up and the Colts have a roster destined to conquer the might middle of the NFL. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting how the NFC will shake out in 2016. NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). Although many scouts underrated Taylor, BackCAST -- Football Outsiders' system for projecting running backs -- identified Taylor as a potential star. I'm surprised it's so down on Indy. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. In reply to Gannon started 12, 11, and by Aaron Brooks G. Nevertheless, there will be some new blood in contention and, in particular, a new city. Meanwhile, the Denver offense drops 0.2% having gained Wilson? In reply to Well, there are 7 worse by by KnotMe. Is there any variable for coaches? (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. Regarding the entire division: even though the mean projection has the division taking up spots 13-16 in the AFC, the reality is that it is very unlikely that the season will end that way. Thats just a penalty for having your tough games early in the season. Marino never got back. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all . Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the six BCS conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college football teams. The Baltimore Ravens are up despite a loss, the Miami Dolphins are down despite a blowout win. See our ethics statement. 11. In reply to 1) It's not too late to get by Vincent Verhei. Even when they're bad they're notthatbad. 13th? New Orleans How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. I remember in 2005, the Colts finally splurged in free agency to bring in Corey Simon. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 22) Plus they have Terry McLaren. The 49ers defense seems like a lock for a top 5 season given the easier schedule. Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple. Editor-in-Chief The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. The Eagles are our new No. 6. I mentioned it before, different position but still a multi time PB offensive player traded to a different team in conference this century but not exactly due to injury, is Trent Williams. Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. Overall, the average of the range of projections comes out with a top-10 offense and special teams combined with an average defense and an easy schedule (25th). Three teams have improved their projected mean DVOA by at least 2.5% since the simulation we ran for the book, and five teams have declined by at least 2.5%. Even when I didn't play, I enjoyed the recaps. 1 plus Jets on the rise, September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history. What is that defensive projection? This is the thing that feeds into DAVE for the first couple games, right? But the mean of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than the rest of the conference. Ill present a couple of paragraphs from the Vikings chapter of the almanac, one for the offense and one for the defense. Hell, in 32 years of Fouts, Brees, and Rivers, SD never made a SB with them. On a lighter note, if you combined the projected 10th and 11th teams, you have a team that would put a mincin on anyone. | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . San Francisco. Well, there are 7 worse by projected wins, which seems reasonable. Then all the wierd coaching staff fluctuations with the only real counter being "Darth Hoodie knows what he's doing" and.you get a team that's hard to figure out. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. The Chiefs slide as a result of their bungle in the jungle, the Cowboys slip past the Eagles in the night, and much more. They didn't lose any starter or even backup (until preseason cuts) from last year, they added two vets in Ingram and Flowers and they have two young guys on the upswing in Holland and Phillips. As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance. Are you *sure* you put the numbers in right? In reply to Losing Scramble and adding by Aaron Brooks G. New England But it also has 0 room to survive injuries and the roster state is such that its hard to envision a huge upside the way you kind of can with Jacksonville. Having locked in my odds, y'all are now invited to join in. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) FEI, used by Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth. Last Big Home Game of the Season for the Lions, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Final injury reports for both teams, Vikings at Lions - Underdog?! The Niners forecast is the one that surprises me. It says that in the article, right? That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. Conversely, Denver has a ton of talent as Tanier even mentions in his chapter. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. 1. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. One of those things people will forget about but will blame every incompletion on it, even if it's a drop. There is also serious top 3 upside if the pass rush is as good as it looks on paper. 4. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. ), then again, we still have Seattle. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com In the five years since, 2015-2019, the mean DVOA forecast had a correlation with actual wins of .503. The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. Most notably, Football Outsiders' models have been down on the Bucs all year. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. They arn't really a threat to win the division, so that makes it less interesting. Ryan's personal projection isn't great, but it isn't terrible. .this years projections give the Vikings a nearly 60% chance of being a playoff team in 2022 (59.7%, to be precise). "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com Is this a first where projections have an entire division as the worst 4 in their conference, it seems incredibly implausible, In reply to AFCS terribleness by HitchikersPie. I do think some sort of loser content at the end of the year would be cool. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the . . Founder of Football Outsiders I would assume DVOA includes coaches somehow. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Its just more difficult to install and tighten the screws on defense than offense because of its nature as a reactive, not proactive, entity. Football Outsiders' DVOA Ranks Arizona Cardinals as One of Worst Teams in NFL - Sports Illustrated Arizona Cardinals News, Analysis and More Football Outsiders Ranks Cardinals as One of. The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. 8. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins; SOS: 26) Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The Eagles projection literally prompted me to google "eagles qb" to see if I'd missed something, but nope, still appears to be Jalen Hurts! It took him a while to get going again and it's likely he got much better coaching than Watson will, In reply to I think Michael Vick is a by Chuckc. He was basically a drunken Garoppolo. As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. Pittsburgh might have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league, and we can expect some rebound from Ben Roethlisberger after an inconsistent 2016 season. I know JC Jackson is gone, but such a jump says more than that. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the . explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. Minnesota's projection is a bit of a surprise, until you realize just how poor the Vikings were in the second half of last season: 24th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA from Week 10 onward. 3. The Titans ranked 15th in our DVOA ratings last season, best in the AFC South, and they've made some strong free-agent additions on defense. The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and they led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. They lose a bunch of guys or something? On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game . The Steelers have exceptional offensive line continuity, as all five starting linemen have been in Pittsburgh for at least four seasons. When someone points out that Minnesota ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), 18th in offensive EPA per drive (per TruMedia) and 17th in defensive EPA per . Find out what gives in our Week 12 DVOA preview. Should the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys all expect to make the playoffs again? by BigRichie. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. 4. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13) Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 5) Not enough response on it last year for us to do the work on it this season. 14. Dick Vitale: Remembering Jim Valvano today, this week and every day after, V Week 2022: Donate now to support the V Foundation and fight cancer, NFL Power Rankings: Patriots, Falcons and Packers lead post-free-agency edition, Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com. Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections They seems to be overrated by DVOA toward the end of last season. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. Will there be a Loser League this season? I'm probably underrating Hurts too, 538 thinks he's league average. 1. Pittsburgh In reply to Montana missed essentially by Aaron Brooks G. A projection of ~16% for the best team seems low to me. 23rd since 2017. The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 3). On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. And it once again projects to have the worst defense in the league. Seattle improves because of Geno Smith replacing Drew Lock as the starting quarterback. In reply to On the other hand, the 49ers by Aaron Brooks G, In reply to Wasn't last year the bad one? (One other change I made from the book simulation: Kansas City has a higher special teams projection here based on the fact that the Chiefs, like Baltimore and New England, have been somewhat consistent on special teams ranking in the top five for seven of the last nine years since Dave Toub took over as special teams coordinator.). Thanks for the work you put into it. A way-too-early look at the USMNT depth chart for 2026 World Cup, Man City's Castellanos is settling nicely in WSL, just in time for Man United's visit. The personnel change variables for skill position players are based on DYAR and Tim Patrick had. Losing Scramble and adding DFS stuff is like when Netflix cut a bunch of content and added ads and called it streamlining. Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. Use promo code, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, Bengals Climb Past Dolphins with Titans Win, Week 12 DVOA Preview: the Dolphins-Ravens Paradox, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Week 10 DVOA Preview: Buffalo Bills Back to No. 4. Reading the book and seeing who is in the secondary, I cant fathom Pitt ending the season with a top five defense let alone number one. | Two Old Bloggers. 1 team overall going into the 2022 season but we have new No. I could easily see a 9-8 division win happening again for either Philly or Washington. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, age and combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason). And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). 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